Unpredictable Races Will Help Set U.S. Roster For Paris

By David Woods for DyeStat

If ever there were an opening for U.S. sportsbooks to post odds on running, it would be this Olympic Trials marathon.

It’s not just that the outcomes of men’s and women’s races Saturday at Orlando, Fla., are so indeterminate. It’s that they are wildly so.

Place your bets.

Biggest name on the men’s side is Galen Rupp, a two-time Olympic medalist bidding to become the first to win the trials three times. This would be the 37-year-old's fifth Olympic team. Conner Mantz has been the fastest American in each of the past two years.

How to watch: Live at 10 a.m. on Peacock. Tape-delayed NBC coverage starts at noon (also streaming on NBCSports.com app and NBC Sports app).

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The women’s field is deeper.

There are the two fastest Americans ever, Emily Sisson and Keira D’Amato; the fastest American of 2023, Betsy Saina; the 2020 trials winner, Aliphine Tuliamuk, and 40-year-old Sara Hall, who was fifth at the 2022 World Championships and is racing in her eighth Olympic Trials. Hall has run four sub-2:23 marathons.

It is entirely possible none of the above qualify for the Paris Olympics. Wild, huh?

Notably dropping out Thursday was Molly Seidel, the surprise bronze medalist at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. She announced on Instagram that she developed a knee injury -- broken patella and torn patella tendon -- a month ago.

Moreover, two Olympic medalists from the track are making their marathon debuts: Paul Chelimo, 33, a silver medalist in the 5,000 meters in 2016 and bronze medalist in 2021, and Jenny Simpson, 37, the 2011 world champion and 2016 Olympic bronze medalist at 1,500 meters. Simpson went to high school in the Orlando suburb of Oviedo.

Each of the past two Olympic teams featured at least one runner making a marathon debut at the trials: Rupp in 2016, Seidel in 2020. Both qualified via half-marathon times, and both went on to earn bronze medals.

A two-time track Olympian to watch is Molly Huddle, 39. She gave birth to a daughter in 2022 and ran 2:32:02 to finish ninth Nov. 5 in New York.

Other women with track credentials include Fionna O’Keeffe (30:52.77) and Natosha Rogers (30:48.69). At age 21, Rogers was second in the 10,000 at the 2012 Olympic Trials but didn’t have the qualifying time for London. At the World Championships in the 10K, she was 15th in 2022 and 14th in 2023.

Because of World Athletics’ complex qualifying system, only the top two men are guaranteed places in Paris, as long as they have run 2:11:30.

Chelimo’s coach, Scott Simmons, has said his four American Distance Project runners – Chelimo, Sam Chelanga, Leonard Korir, Shadrack Kipchirchir – will thus aim at the 2:08:10 automatic standard. Chelimo qualified via a 1:02:22 half-marathon.

Another runner likely to push the men’s pace is CJ Albertson. He led the 2021 Boston Marathon for 20 miles before finishing 10th, and his high-mileage weeks can be tracked via Strava. In December, he ran two 2:11 marathons just one week apart.

New to the marathon scene are Zach Panning and Futsum Zienasellassie, both among the 10 fastest men’s entries. Coincidentally, both were Indiana high school runners, from Fort Wayne and Indianapolis, respectively.

It may not pay to bet on Abdi Abdirahman, but the five-time Olympian is making a run for it at age 47.

Contact David Woods at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter: @DavidWoods007